September, 1999
A lighter crop + excellent fruit quality + strong promotion is breeding
confidence and optimism for the 1999 apple crop. That was one of the messages
from the U.S. Apple Association’s (USApple) 1999 Apple Crop Outlook
and Marketing Conference Aug. 19, 20 in Chicago.
The 1998 crop year will long be remembered for its large crop, poor export
markets and plummeting prices for juice apples. This year growers should
see a much a better year with increased prices across the board.
USApple reports favorable weather including a picture-perfect early season
in New England and larger crops in eastern and Midwestern states because
of “on year” production in the biennial bearing cycle. The mid-season
drought threatens crop potential, namely peeler apples for processing and
possibly McIntosh for fresh market, in portions of the east and Midwest.
More than 55% of apples produced will be sold for fresh, about 43% will
go for processing and a small portion won’t be marketed, according
to USDA’s estimates.
USApple predicts a rise in prices for apples used for processing. Jim Cranney,
vice president of industry services for USApple, reported that several factors
will affect concentrate juice prices including low stocks in Europe and
in the Southern Hemisphere as well as the predicted successful outcome of
the anti-dumping suit filed against the People’s Republic of China.
The demand for processing apples in 1999 appears to be good based on processor
inventory positions and purchasing intentions.
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s said it will rule by no later than
Nov. 15 on the anti-dumping suit. On July 22 the department determined there
is sufficient evidence that indicates Chinese apple imports are a cause
of injury. “This industry is requesting ruling by no later than Oct.
5,” said Kraig Naasz, president and CEO of USApple. He said if duties
are imposed they will be retroactive by 90 days and owed by the importer
of record.
“Our goal has not been to close the Chinese border to apple concentrate.
Our goal is to level the playing field,” Naasz said.
Food retailer consolidation creating a decline in the number of retail apple
buyers will likely have a profound impact on the structure of the apple
industry in future years, according to USApple. Apple growers, shippers
and packers also continue to get bigger through consolidation.
Apple industry leaders are looking at ways to increase apple consumption.
They want to promote the nutritional benefits of apples including University
of California –Davis research that reports drinking apple juice helps
fight bad cholesterol. Apples contain phytonutrients, with benefits similar
to antioxidants, said Sue Taylor, from the Processed Apples Institute, one
of the presenters at the conference. The institute was given money by the
apple industry to help fund nutritional research.
Promoters are also looking at ways to keep consumers drinking apple juice,
as families with children under six are the biggest consumers of apple juice,
according to the institute’s research. Despite production increases,
consumption remains flat. Research shows that a typical consumer spends
just 21 minutes grocery shopping including walking to and from the car.
Apples need to be on grocery lists, as they are not an impulse buy.
A draft of a USApple National Promotion Program, to create generic advertising
for the apple industry, may be circulated at USApple winter meeting. Before
put to a referendum vote by apple producers, the draft would likely be modified
and some consensus building in the industry would take place, according
to Joseph Nicholson, Jr., USApple Trustee and chairman of national promotion
program task force.
Crop estimate
USApple forecasted just over 239 million bushels for the entire country,
5% lower than the USDA’s estimate of over 251 million bushels. Top
three varieties nationwide include Red Delicious, Golden Delicious and Granny
Smith. Newer varieties such as Fuji, Gala, Braeburn, Jonagold and Pink Lady
are expected to increase and challenge the superior position of Red and
Golden Delicious. This overall production is 7% down from 1998 which at
271.1 million bushels, was the second-largest apple crop since the USDA
started recording statistics.
USApple estimated the overall crop in the west at 144.9 million bushels
with Washington’s crop expected to be 19% lower at 123.7 million bushels.
USApple total apple crop forecast for the Midwest is estimated at just under
35 million bushels led by Michigan’s crop estimate of 25.5 million.
USApple forecasts the total eastern apple production at 59.6 million bushels,
9% lower than USDA’s forecast of 65.4 million, but an increase from
55.5 million bushels of apples produced in 1998.
Washington
Washington experienced spotty bloom, cooler than normal weather in the early
production stages resulting in slightly smaller apple size. Red Delicious,
Golden Delicious, Granny Smith and Fuji in Washington are expected to decrease
while Gala, Braeburn and Jonagold production is expected to increase. Production
of Gala variety should rise 19% to 7.6 million bushels while Fuji is expected
to decrease to 8.9 million bushels for a 13% reduction from last year. Total
projected crop for Washington is 123.7 million bushels, down from last year’s
152 million bushels.
New York
New York, the second largest apple producing state this year, is a wild
card right now because of the drought, according to Shelley Page from the
New York Apple Association. “It’s hard to tell what the total
effect of the drought will be,” she said. The fruit isn’t sizing
in the lower Hudson Valley. She reported an “absolutely perfect fruit
set this spring.” Variable moisture has been reported in different
parts of the state and apple harvest is seven to 10 days early in all areas.
USApple forecast 26.5 million bushels for New York is 8% lower than USDA’s
estimate and an increase from last year’s production of 25.5 million.
Michigan
Michigan, the third largest apple producing state this year, anticipates
an increase in its apple production to 25.5 million bushels, from 23 million
last year. Michigan experienced adequate rainfall and the recent cool weather
is adding color to the fruit, according to Tom Butler, from the Michigan
Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Association. Overall ideal weather in
the growing season was reported as well as good size and finish. Butler
said the crop is 10 days early and the overall quality is very clean.
Some scab and hail damage was reported as well as some leafroller problems.
Michigan anticipates improved prices from 1998 for processing apples because
of the demand.
California
USApple estimates California’s apple production at 14.5 million bushels,
more than 25% lower than USDA’s estimate of 19.6 million bushels. California
is experiencing very good bloom and apples are up two sizes over last year.
There is a 100% increase in quality and the color of Galas is the best ever
seen, according to Mark Lewis, from the Sierra Hills Packing, Inc. in Stockton,
Calif. He said the smaller sizes are moving well and the Granny Smith is
the largest variety in California.
The Pink Lady variety should rise to 400,000 bushels while Fuji is expected
to decrease to 1.4 million bushels, down from 2.3 million last year.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s apple output is expected to increase to 11 million bushels
(vs. 11.5 million predicted by USDA), according to USApple. This year’s
apples were described as a large clean crop that’s getting smaller
because of the drought. Dry, dry and dry were three words used to describe
most regions in Pennsylvania with some counties enforcing water rationing.
