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September, 1998

USApple crop estimate is 2% less than USDA’s

The U.S. apple industry met in Chicago Aug. 20-21 to develop the industry's annual crop forecast, projecting the 1998 U.S. apple crop to be 264.8 million bushels.

The forecast, a major feature of the U.S. Apple Association's (USApple) annual Apple Crop Outlook and Marketing Conference, projects the U.S. crop to be 2% less than the recently-released U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast of 269.6 million bushels, and 4% greater than the average U.S. crop of the past five years. The 1997 U.S. crop was 247.3 million bushels.

“This year's crop will come in as the second-largest U.S. crop on record,” said USApple Vice President of Industry Services Jim Cranney, Jr., who develops the association's annual conference and oversees the industry’s crop forecast. "Much of the increased production is from new varieties.”

Washington state will continue to lead as the major U.S. apple producer, accounting for 55% of the nation's crop, followed by Michigan, New York, California, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Combined, these states will produce 86% of the country's apple supply.

Regional estimates

USApple's Western region crop forecast (Washington, California, Oregon, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico) is 173.3 million bushels, up 14% from the 1997 crop. An increase in the Washington state crop accounts for much of the increase in the total U.S. crop, with Washington's crop forecast by USApple at 145.2 million bushels, up from 1997’s crop of 119 million bushels. Seventy percent of the 1998 Washington crop is projected to be directed to the fresh market. A good-quality crop is expected with a wider array of varieties than ever before, according to the region's crop reporter.

“Our industry is sailing in uncharted waters, but it isn’t the first time,” said Lindsay Buckner of Tree Top Inc., Selah, Wash., reporting the Northwest regional crop outlook to conference attendees. “We have demonstrated we are able to navigate through these changes.”

The California crop is forecast at 17 million bushels, down 26% from the 1997 crop of 22.9 million bushels and the five-year average of 22.3 million bushels due to unusual weather conditions created by El Nino. Of the 1998 forecasted crop, 8.5 million bushels are projected to be marketed as fresh fruit, an increase of 250,000 bushels from the 1997 crop.

Production from the Midwestern region (Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Minnesota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Kansas, Iowa and Arkansas) is forecasted to increase to 34.5 million bushels from 1997's 33.6 million bushels. Michigan, the region's single-largest producer, is forecasted to produce a 26.2 million bushel crop, an increase from that state's 1997 crop of 25 million bushels and above the five-year average of 23.9 million bushels. Regional reporter David Gress, Fruit Growers Marketing Association, Newcomerstown, Ohio, told conference attendees that the region would produce a strong mix of varieties as well as sizes to meet both tray-packed and bagged-fruit demand.

The Eastern region crop (New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Maine, New Jersey, Maryland, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, South Carolina, Georgia, Delaware and Rhode Island) is forecast to be 57.1 million bushels, down from the 1997 crop of 62.2 million bushels and the five-year average of 62.9 million bushels. New York is forecast to produce a 24 million bushel crop, down from the 1997 crop of 26.7 million bushels.

1998 varietal forecast

According to USApple-developed varietal forecasts, U.S. varietal production will continue a transition begun in the early 1990s. Red Delicious and Golden Delicious will maintain their historic top spots, while Fuji will edge Granny Smith out for the number three spot for the first time. Rome, Gala, McIntosh, Jonathan, Idared and Empire will round out the top-ten U.S. varieties based on production.

Production of a number of new varieties is increasing, including Braeburn and Pink Lady in the west.

Red Delicious production is expected to increase in 1998, due in large part to the larger crop from Washington state; USApple's 1998 forecast of 104.6 million bushels is up from the 1997 level of 90.6 million bushels.

Golden Delicious forecasted production of 38.5 million bushels is up from 1997’s 34.4 million bushels. Fuji forecasted production of 19.8 million bushels is up from the 1997 level of 15.8 million bushels. McIntosh production is expected to be down to 11.7 million bushels from 14.6 million bushels in 1997, due to lighter crops in the New England region.

Information available

The association's 1998 Production and Utilization Analysis, the annual compendium of U.S. and world apple-industry statistics and analysis, is now available from USApple. Sponsored this year by BASF Agricultural Products, the statistical compendium is available for $35 to USApple members, and $100 to non-members. The 1998 Apple Crop Outlook and Marketing Conference proceedings are available for $75 to non-attending USApple members, $100 for non-attending non-members. For information on ordering these publications, contact USApple at (703) 442-8850 or (800) 781-4443.

The 1999 U.S. Apple Association Apple Crop Outlook and Marketing Conference will be held Aug. 19-20, 1999 in Chicago.